There’s this chart. It’s not a good looking chart. That’s unfortunate, because it’s a potentially meaningful one. We know that developers largely hold the key to the future of BlackBerry. RIM can create a wonderful, revolutionary platform. But unless they get the developers on board, they don’t have much of a future. (Of course, creating a revolutionary platform will probably attract developers, as well as consumers.) Yet it appears that their confidence in all BlackBerry platforms is waning. All Things D has a chart, compiled by Baird Equity Research, that shows the grim details. Even a year ago, developers had more confidence in Windows Phone 7 than they did in BlackBerry 10. In fact, they continue to have a more optimistic long-term outlook for Windows Phone 7, despite its numerous complaints, than BlackBerry 10. It’s a real head scratcher. The relatively high numbers for Windows 8 doesn’t bode well for RIM, either. Microsoft is going to beat RIM to the market, which gives it a further advantage. Surprisingly, only iOS saw increased confidence in Q2, 2012. Even Android has seen a drop-off, albeit slight. That chart doesn’t look good, either. It’s understandable that the long-term outlook for the legacy BlackBerry platform is trending downwards, because it’s on its way out. But BlackBerry 10? It’s quite disconcerting to see it go from a 5.0 a year ago to under 4.0 today. This doesn’t by any means put RIM under. It’s just a survey of 200 developers, which isn’t even that large a sample. But considering the importance of third-party developers for the success of Blackberry 10, it can’t be at all encouraging.
Developers’ confidence in RIM waning
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